Aemetis Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results with Expanding Dairy RNG Platform and Policy Tailwinds

Stonegate Capital Partners has updated its coverage on Aemetis, Inc. following the company's third-quarter 2025 results that highlight a strengthening Dairy RNG platform supported by CARB pathway approvals, incremental digesters, and favorable policy momentum. The company's twelve operating digesters produced 114,000 MMBtu during the quarter and generated approximately $4.0 million in revenue, with biogas sales fully monetizing seven newly approved LCFS pathways. Total quarterly revenue reached $59.2 million, representing a $7 million sequential increase driven by India OMC orders and improved California ethanol pricing and volumes.

Aemetis has signed equipment and installation contracts totaling $57 million year-to-date across its dairy RNG and Mechanical Vapor Recompression projects. The company's capacity is currently expected to reach 550,000 MMBtus by year-end and is projected to further increase to 1.0 million MMBtus by fiscal year 2027. Monetization avenues on energy production now include sale of RNG molecules, D3 RINs, and Section 45Z production tax credits, providing multiple levers for recurring cash generation. Through its dairy RNG business, Aemetis is planning an initial sale of approximately $20 million of Section 45Z and Section 48 credits following the September completion of the multi-dairy biogas digester, with management noting signed contracts and pathway approvals that enable recurring monetization going forward.

The company expects 45Z monetization to become a recurring quarterly revenue item beginning in the fourth quarter of 2025, with initial sales monetizing the year-to-date credits generated. Commercial execution also advanced with agreements to deliver hydrogen sulfide removal and compression, pipeline, and related equipment as part of the 2025 contracting activity, supporting continued scale-up of the dairy RNG platform. In the California Ethanol segment, Aemetis executed an Engineering, Procurement and Construction agreement with NPL to install a $30 million Mechanical Vapor Recompression system at the Keyes plant, scheduled for completion in the second quarter of 2026.

Once operational, management projects $32 million of incremental annual cash flow due to approximately 80% lower natural-gas usage, higher LCFS revenues from a double-digit carbon intensity reduction, and increased transferable 45Z credits. California policy tailwinds strengthened further as Governor Newsom signed AB30, immediately allowing statewide E15 and expanding the potential ethanol market by more than 600 million gallons per year. India biodiesel delivered $14.5 million of revenue on resumed OMC allocations, and the subsidiary continues to target an initial public offering in 2026. The third quarter operating loss came in at $8.5 million compared to $3.9 million year-over-year, with selling, general and administrative expenses up 15.5% sequentially, while net loss expanded to $23.7 million from $18.0 million.

Aemetis is positioned to benefit from four major U.S. policy tailwinds accelerating demand for low-carbon fuels: CARB's long-duration LCFS framework with improving LCFS pricing; Section 45Z production tax credits; California's adoption of E15 via AB30, which expands the addressable market and should enhance plant economics alongside the Keyes MVR project; and ongoing state and federal clean-fuel mandates and incentives. Collectively, these factors, together with the signed EPC for MVR and the fully monetized RNG pathways, underpin the company's focus on margin expansion, recurring credit monetization, and disciplined project financing into 2026.