HKTDC Forecasts 8-9% Hong Kong Export Growth for 2026, Driven by Sustained AI Product Demand

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has forecast that Hong Kong's exports will grow by between 8% and 9% in 2026, according to figures released as part of its annual Export Outlook report. This projection follows the city's better-than-anticipated 2025 export performance and is set to be driven by robust demand for AI-related electronics products. According to the findings of the recently-released HKTDC 4Q25 Export Confidence Index, the majority of exporters (53.2%) see rising demand for AI and new technology-related electronic consumer goods as the factor most likely to boost their 2026 business. This is seen as crucial given that the electronics sector accounts for more than 70% of Hong Kong's total export value.

These upbeat figures are remarkable given the high year-on-year comparison base from 2025, when many exporters sought to frontload orders to complete shipments before the imposition of anticipated US tariffs. Irina Fan, Director of HKTDC Research, noted that while 2025 proved to be a year of heightened uncertainty, 2026 should be a year of greater clarity on global trade. With the Chinese Mainland and the US having come to a trade agreement in November, US tariffs are no longer among Hong Kong exporters' three biggest 2026 concerns. Fan acknowledged that uncertainties remain ahead, as US imports from different countries are subject to different levels of tariffs, prompting business leaders worldwide to reorganize activities to optimize cost advantages.

Outlining what this will mean within the Asia-Pacific region, Fan said that Chinese Mainland exports to the US will be subject to a 20% reciprocal tariff rate until November 2026. This comparatively low additional tariff puts China-based suppliers, many with more mature and highly productive supply chains, on par with their Southeast Asia counterparts while giving them a significant advantage over any country subject to a higher tariff rate. Underpinning Hong Kong's anticipated 2026 export expansion are the findings of the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 4Q25, which was also released today. The two key measures of this long-established quarterly metric—the Current Performance Index (51.4) and the Expectation Index (51.9)—have both stayed above the 50-point watershed level, indicating that future export growth is expected.

Kenneth Lee, Head of the HKTDC Research's Special Project and Business Advisory Section, commented that when it comes to expansion plans over the next two-year period, Asia remains very much the focus. For 42.0% of respondents, the Chinese Mainland was the highest priority market, followed by the rest of Asia (30.3%) and the ASEAN bloc (18.9%). By industry, exporters in almost every sector saw scaling up their activities on the Chinese Mainland as their priority. Beyond the headline findings of the survey, a more detailed analysis highlights good news for Hong Kong exporters in terms of both individual market prospects and the likely future success of most of the city's key industry sectors.

In specific terms, turning to the Market Expectation Sub-Index, the Chinese Mainland (57.2) and the ASEAN bloc (57.0) are still considered to have significant growth potential. Predictably, this was less the case for the US (down 1.4 to 38.0), with the uncertainties in its trade environment continuing to unsettle Hong Kong exporters. Turning to individual industries, a number of sectors have expansionary expectations for the year ahead, topping the list is Jewellery (54.8), followed by Electronics (52.4), Timepieces (51.6) and Equipment/Materials (51.1). Despite such overall positive sentiments, the survey also points out the possibility that a number of challenges may lie ahead. Most notably, it cited rising labour and production costs (53.9%), growing logistics challenges (38.8%) and declining overseas orders on account of the general economic slowdown (38.2%) as potential future concerns. Further details are available in the Hong Kong 2026 Export Outlook report and the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 4Q25 findings.