HKTDC Lifts 2026 Export Forecast to Above 20% on AI-Driven Electronics Boom

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has upwardly revised its 2026 export forecast to year-on-year growth of above 20%, following a stronger-than-expected performance since the start of the year and sustained momentum in global demand for technology products. The HKTDC Export Confidence Index (2Q26), released today, shows an improvement in both key indicators: the Current Performance Index (51.0) and the Expectation Index (52.4). Both indicators rebounding above the 50 threshold reflects improved exporter sentiment stemming from evolving US trade policies and ongoing geopolitical developments.

Commenting on the export performance, HKTDC Director of Research Bruce Pang said: “The recent upturn has been supported by resilient regional trade amid the AI-driven technology cycle, which has been maintained despite lingering uncertainties in the Middle East. Overall, the outlook for many of Hong Kong’s major markets has improved, with the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN remaining the most promising. Sentiment towards the US market has also strengthened following the Xi-Trump meeting in mid-May and recent trade policy developments. At present, export momentum is expected to remain solid, although geopolitical developments and risks to global demand may continue to create uncertainties.”

In the first five months of 2026, Hong Kong’s exports recorded a robust 36.2% year-on-year increase, an uptick underpinned by strong demand for electronics amid an accelerating global AI cycle. Electronics remained the key growth driver, accounting for more than 70% of Hong Kong’s total exports, with semiconductors and intermediate items putting in a particularly strong performance. The proliferation of AI applications, including generative AI and enterprise digitalisation, has triggered a new wave of demand for high-performance chips, ICT equipment, and related components, significantly boosting Hong Kong’s re-export trade, particularly to the Chinese Mainland, ASEAN production bases and major developed markets.

While demand has remained strong, a notable portion of recent growth has been driven by price. Tight supply conditions in the semiconductor sector have led to significant increases in component prices, particularly in memory chips and advanced processors. HKTDC Deputy Director of Research Wing Chu said: “The export value of key electronic components has risen faster than order volumes, with price increases amplifying overall growth. However, as production capacity expands and supply constraints gradually ease, semiconductor prices are expected to moderate. This may lead to some softening in export value growth over the longer-term, even as underlying demand for AI-enabled devices and infrastructure remains resilient.”

Hong Kong continues to play a critical role as a regional trading hub, facilitating the flow of electronic parts and semi-manufactured goods across Asian supply chains and into global markets. This intermediary role has been a key factor in the city’s strong export performance and is expected to remain a key source of resilience even as component prices normalise over the medium term. In addition to technology factors, steady overseas demand for consumer products has provided further support, reflecting the resilience of global consumption in recent months.

Looking ahead, several uncertainties could continue to weigh on trade performance, including geopolitical tensions particularly in the Middle East, volatility in global energy prices, and policy uncertainties and rising protectionism including evolving US trade measures and shifts among major trading partners.

For more details, refer to the 2026 Mid-Year Export Review and Outlook and the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 2Q26.