Holiday Shoppers to Increase Spending by 6 Percent, Embrace AI for Shopping Support

Holiday shoppers are projected to spend at least 6 percent more this season, averaging up to $1,077 per household compared to last year, according to Simon-Kucher's 7th Annual Holiday Shopping Report. The comprehensive study reveals consumers are operating with stricter budgets while shifting focus toward quality and value rather than price alone across most categories. Shikha Jain, Partner and Head of Consumer and Retail for North America at Simon-Kucher, emphasized that consumers are not seeking uniform discount strategies but rather balanced promotions that meet expectations while maintaining retailer profitability.

Key findings indicate that most consumers expect discounts up to 40 percent, with 25 percent discounts remaining common across various categories. Spending patterns are category-specific, with over 50 percent of consumers spending more than $100 in high-value categories including household appliances, home improvement, and electronics. Jain noted that holiday sales growth in 2025 will depend on meaningful discounts, with consumers acting decisively to secure deals that may not remain available.

Purchasing behavior shows that 66 percent of early holiday shoppers favor Black Friday and other sales events, beginning shopping as early as the 4th of July through Super Saturday. Social media serves as an inspiration source for 64 percent of shoppers, while return rates remain relatively low with three out of four consumers returning 10 percent or less of their purchases. Max Walter, Director of Consumer and Retail for North America at Simon-Kucher, observed that today's shoppers plan early, seek social media inspiration, and expect seamless experiences that minimize returns.

Artificial intelligence has gained significant traction in holiday shopping, with 54 percent of consumers using AI for shopping support. Specifically, 23 percent utilize AI for deal tracking and 27 percent for price comparisons, though adoption varies by generation as older consumers prefer brainstorming their own gift ideas. Walter commented that AI is increasingly leveraged despite generational adoption and trust challenges. Additional factors influencing shopping include tariffs, which 44 percent of consumers expect to have at least moderate impact on their holiday spending, while 19 percent are opting out due to budget constraints and commercialization concerns.

Shoppers employ an average of 2.4 payment methods, with 45 percent preferring debit cards as their primary payment option. Walter added that tariffs create financial pressure on both essential and discretionary goods, making value-driven initiatives crucial for business success. Compared to 2019 trends, most consumers continue expecting discount sales up to 25 percent and view Black Friday as the premier sales event. Amazon maintains market dominance while social media platforms such as Instagram and TikTok gain traction for browsing. Jain concluded that consumers value transparency, convenience, and shopping experiences emphasizing loyalty and quality over discounts alone.