Hong Kong Exporters Adopt Cautious Stance Amid Global Uncertainties, While E-commerce Emerges as Growth Channel

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) reported that Hong Kong exporters have adopted a more cautious stance in the first quarter of 2026 amid ongoing global trade and economic uncertainties, despite strong export performance in recent months. The HKTDC 1Q26 Export Confidence Index showed moderate declines for two key indicators: the Current Performance Index stood at 46.5, and the Expectation Index returned 46.9, reflecting caution among survey respondents due to the uncertain external environment. Trade value expectations remained relatively steady, with the Trade Value Sub-Index near the neutral threshold at 50.9 for Current and 49.1 for Expectation, suggesting unit prices are expected to hold firm. Meanwhile, both the Current and Expected Inventory Sub-Index rose above 60, indicating inventory rundown amid growing shipments early in the year.

HKTDC Director of Research Bruce Pang commented that the outlook for many of Hong Kong’s major markets has moderated, including the ASEAN bloc and the Chinese Mainland, largely due to ongoing geopolitical developments. He noted that fundamental demand, especially for electronics and other consumer sectors, remains resilient in the longer term, and Hong Kong’s trade prospects should stay positive yet cautious pending further easing of global geopolitical conflicts. Despite the overall softening, several key sectors outperformed the overall Index. The jewellery sector rallied impressively, with its Current reading climbing to 57.1 and Expectation rising to 56.0, supported by robust sales and sizeable new orders. The clothing sector also showed considerable improvement, with its Current Index rising to 52.1 and Expectation Index increasing to 53.4. However, sentiment among electronics exporters weakened, with a Current reading of 44.9 and Expectation of 45.6, signalling disruptions over the Chinese New Year period.

Cost pressures showed signs of stabilising, with the Cost Sub-Index improving significantly: the Current reading rose 15.2 points to 38.1 and Expectation increased by 8.5 points to 41.3, indicating potential sustained relief from cost pressures despite recent surges in oil and energy prices triggered by developments in the Middle East. The impact of the recent conflict in the region was not factored into this survey as fieldwork was carried out in January and February. As part of the same survey, HKTDC Research conducted a thematic assessment of Hong Kong exporters’ cross-border e-commerce business, revealing that 46% of respondents were already engaged in cross-border e-commerce, while a further 20% plan to enter the sector within the coming year. Among companies already engaged, the Chinese Mainland ranked as the leading e-commerce sales destination at 24%, followed by the EU27 & UK at 17% and Canada & the US at 15%, while the ASEAN bloc at 14% continued to emerge as a promising market with notable growth potential.

HKTDC Section Head of Special Project & Business Advisory Kenneth Lee added that market diversification remains a key strategy for Hong Kong traders to mitigate risks, and more companies are leveraging e-commerce channels to boost sales and enhance business sustainability amid an uncertain external environment. The findings underscore the importance of adaptive strategies in navigating global trade headwinds, with e-commerce offering a pathway for resilience and growth. For detailed insights, refer to the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 1Q26 report and the HKTDC Research website for further analysis and data.