LA Broker Challenges 2026 'Housing Reset' Narrative, Points to Interest Rates and Pandemic Pricing as Market Drivers

Courtney Poulos, founder and CEO of ACME Real Estate in Los Angeles, challenges the prevailing industry narrative labeling 2026 as a "Great Housing Reset," arguing that attention should focus on fundamental economic factors rather than political headlines. While tariffs have added costs, Poulos states that the real constraint on the market stems from the pricing dynamics established during the COVID-19 pandemic and current interest rates, not from recent policy changes.

"Everyone's calling 2026 the great housing reset, but Trump's tariffs just added $17,500 to new home costs while his housing reforms remain undefined," Poulos notes. She questions whether this represents an actual reset or merely industry wishful thinking. In her Los Angeles market, where new construction is not the dominant housing stock, the impact of tariffs has been negligible according to her observations and developer contacts. "The contractors in my world have not seen any impact as a result of the tariffs," she says flatly.

The core issue, Poulos explains, is the mismatch between what sellers paid during the COVID boom and what buyers can afford now. "People who bought houses during COVID bought with cheap money, low interest rates, and pushed the values to a place where, when interest rates get higher now, it makes it less easy to sell that house," she explains. This creates a "lock" where sellers are unwilling to accept losses on homes purchased with sub-3% mortgages, and buyers cannot afford those same prices at current 6-7% rates, thereby stagnating inventory.

Poulos believes the solution lies in creative financing options and realistic rate adjustments. She points to rate buy-downs, where developers prepay mortgage rates with builder credits, as a mechanism to help buyers. Recently, she has seen rates in the fives on seven-year jumbo adjustable-rate mortgages. "When you have interest rates in the fives, all those people who are sitting on the edges are going to start making moves," she says. The challenge is finding a balance where rates are low enough to unlock inventory without triggering inflation.

Contrary to doom-and-gloom narratives, Poulos reports cautious optimism in the market. "Buyers are coming to the table who were not in the market in the fall," she observes, noting that some are tired of waiting and willing to engage, while some sellers are becoming more flexible on price to facilitate deals. She cites an example where a property received 19 offers but sold for $300,000 over asking rather than a typical $400,000 over, indicating buyers have a ceiling influenced by borrowing costs. "There has been an uptick in buyer enthusiasm this fall, even into November, which is typically the beginning of the quiet time," she adds.

Regarding the 2026 reset narrative, Poulos states, "I don't see the truth in that sentiment. But I do feel optimism in our market." What she witnesses is not a reset, crash, or boom, but a market adapting as participants work with reality rather than waiting for perfect conditions. She emphasizes the importance of homeownership, stating, "I'm rooting for us to be able to continue to experience the American dream because I believe it's the number one way to build wealth for people who are not already wealthy." For further insights, Poulos hosts "The Clean Close" podcast covering real estate trends.