New Risk Calculator Predicts Dementia Risk After Stroke

A new risk calculator accurately estimated the likelihood of adults developing dementia within ten years after a stroke, according to a preliminary study to be presented at the American Stroke Association’s International Stroke Conference 2026. The study, which examined health records for nearly 50,000 adults hospitalized with stroke in Canada, found that the tool could stratify patients into five different levels of dementia risk based on underlying health, stroke characteristics, and risk factors.

Researchers identified several factors linked with a higher risk of developing dementia after a stroke. These included being older, having any disability before the stroke, having a higher level of disability after the stroke, having an intracerebral hemorrhage compared to an ischemic stroke, having diabetes, experiencing cognitive symptoms during hospitalization, or suffering from depression. For people who had a transient ischemic attack, the top factors were older age, needing help with activities of daily living prior to TIA, having diabetes, depression, cognitive symptoms on presentation, and any disability at hospital discharge.

The risk calculator used these top risk factors to categorize individuals into different levels of estimated risk over the next decade. Those in the highest category had a 50% probability of dementia over ten years, versus participants in the lowest category who had a 5% probability. The tool was derived using data from the Ontario Stroke Registry and validated in the separate Ontario Stroke Audit. According to lead study author Raed A. Joundi, M.D., D.Phil., M.Sc., the goal is to have a practical, bedside tool that can predict dementia risk after a stroke to help enroll high-risk patients in clinical trials focused on reducing the long-term risk of dementia.

This development matters because dementia is a serious condition that commonly occurs after a stroke, and over the long-term, it is more common than a recurrent stroke. While healthy lifestyle choices and controlling vascular risk factors can lower the risk, researchers emphasize the need for new and effective targeted interventions for dementia prevention. The current focus of the tool is to stratify patients for research studies and clinical trials rather than for clinical decision-making. American Stroke Association volunteer expert Deborah A. Levine, M.D., M.P.H., noted that this well-done study provides a useful tool that could make research faster, so new treatments can get to stroke survivors sooner. The study is considered preliminary until published in a peer-reviewed journal. More information about stroke is available at https://www.stroke.org or https://www.DerrameCerebral.org.