Projections Show 60% of U.S. Women Will Have Cardiovascular Disease by 2050, With Sharp Increases Among Younger Women and Women of Color

Driven by rising rates in high blood pressure, nearly 6 in 10 women in the U.S. will have some type of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the next 25 years, according to a new scientific statement published in Circulation, the peer-reviewed, flagship journal of the American Heart Association. The statement, Forecasting the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050 in Women: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association, builds upon prior work by the Association to assess projections of future cardiovascular disease prevalence among women and the subsequent economic burden.

Findings from the report point to significant increases among women for all types of cardiovascular disease, including heart disease, heart failure, atrial fibrillation and stroke. Surges are also projected among women for many of the major health factors that contribute to cardiovascular disease, including high blood pressure, obesity and diabetes. The report finds that, given current trends, by 2050 nearly 60% of women will have high blood pressure, compared to fewer than half currently. More than 25% of women will have diabetes, compared to about 15% currently, and more than 60% of women will have obesity, compared to about 44% currently.

While older women will continue to have some of the highest rates of cardiovascular disease and associated risk factors, rates will climb substantially among young women. By 2025, nearly a third of all women 22-44 years of age will have some type of cardiovascular disease, compared to less than 1 in 4 currently. Diabetes rates for women age 22-44 will more than double, from 6% to nearly 16%. More than a third of women age 22-44 will have high blood pressure, an increase of more than 11%, and more than 1 in 6 women age 22-44 will have obesity, an increase of more than 18%.

The increases are even more prevalent among women and girls identifying as American Indian/Alaska Native, Black, Hispanic or multiracial people. The projections among women of color indicate some of the largest increases; by 2050 high blood pressure will increase the most among Hispanic women, up by more than 15%, and obesity will increase the most among Asian women, up by nearly 26%. Prevalence rates of health factors for CVD will, for the most part, remain highest among Black women. More than 70% of Black women will have high blood pressure, more than 71% will have obesity and nearly 28% will have diabetes.

The report also looks at cardiovascular health risk factors among young girls, finding that by 2050, nearly 32% of girls 2-19 years of age will have obesity, an increase of more than 12%. That’s likely driven by more than 60% of these girls having inadequate physical activity and more than half having poor diets, rates that are projected to improve only slightly over the coming decades. As with women, these rates are typically higher among girls of color, particularly Black girls - 40% of whom will have obesity by 2050.

The American Heart Association defines optimal health through its Life’s Essential 8™ - four health behaviors and four health factors. The report includes several simulation studies that identified ways to reverse current trends, suggesting that a 10% reduction of health factors such as high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes and obesity and a 20% improvement in the control of blood pressure, blood sugar and cholesterol could reduce CVD and stroke events, including death, by 17% to 23%. Reducing obesity by half and doubling risk factor control could reduce CVD events and deaths by 30% to 40%.