Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on Aemetis, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMTX) After 1Q26 Results Show Progress in Low-Carbon Fuel Monetization

Stonegate Capital Partners has updated its coverage on Aemetis, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMTX) following the company's first quarter 2026 financial results, which indicate a transition from project development toward recurring low-carbon fuel monetization. The quarterly report showed a 27% year-over-year increase in revenue to $54.6 million, a gross profit of $2.8 million compared to a $5.1 million loss in the prior year, and an adjusted EBITDA loss narrowing to $1.3 million from a $10.7 million loss. The improvement was driven by the initial recognition of 45Z tax credits tied to current-period production, with $4.0 million recognized across Dairy RNG and California Ethanol after a full-year 2025 catch-up in the fourth quarter.

The results underscore that credit monetization is moving from narrative to reported earnings. The 45Z credits, part of the Inflation Reduction Act, provide a recurring revenue stream for low-carbon fuels. Aemetis is now recognizing these credits quarterly, adding a predictable component to its financials. The company's Dairy RNG segment is emerging as a clear proof point for recurring cash flow, with RNG volumes increasing 55% year-over-year to 110,000 MMBtu. Additionally, seven CARB pathways at a negative 380 CI score are expected to materially improve LCFS credit capture as volumes scale.

The largest near-term EBITDA inflection catalyst remains the Keyes MVR (mechanical vapor recompression) project. Construction is advancing toward completion in 2026, and the MVR system is expected to displace approximately 80% of fossil natural gas use at the Keyes ethanol plant, adding an estimated $32 million of annual cash flow. This project is a key component of Aemetis' strategy to reduce carbon intensity and generate additional revenue from low-carbon fuel credits.

Stonegate's update highlights that Aemetis is now entering a phase where its investments in renewable natural gas and ethanol production are starting to yield financial returns. The company's focus on monetizing low-carbon fuel credits through programs like 45Z and California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard positions it to benefit from growing demand for cleaner energy sources. As production scales and new projects come online, Aemetis is poised to further improve its financial performance and cash flow generation.