Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on Fold Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: FLD) Following 1Q26 Results

Stonegate Capital Partners has updated its coverage on Fold Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: FLD) following the company's first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, which reflected bitcoin-market-driven pressure on transaction activity but did not alter the core investment thesis. Instead, the quarter shifted the focus for fiscal 2026 toward conversion and scaling across products now in market, according to the research note.

Fold reported revenue of $5.6 million for 1Q26, a decline of 21.1% year-over-year, as transaction volume fell 32% to $172 million. Verified accounts approached 85,000 with close to 2,000 net additions. The net loss was $29.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA was negative $5.8 million, though GAAP results were affected by bitcoin treasury fair value changes and financing-related items. Operating expenses declined 19% year-over-year to $13.4 million, supported by lower direct costs, lower stock-based compensation, and lower professional fees.

Management noted that February marked the bottom across most core KPIs, with early improvement observed as bitcoin recovered. Stonegate views the first quarter as market-driven pressure on transaction-linked activity, while Fold's broader platform strategy moved closer to commercial validation.

The research highlights three key takeaways from the quarter. First, 1Q26 advanced Fold's transition toward platform-led monetization, with account growth, opex discipline, and concurrent product launches supporting a broader revenue model beyond transaction activity. Second, credit card execution is the primary catalyst for fiscal 2026, with over 1,000 cards live and an approximately 80,000-person waitlist. Cohort spend, engagement, credit performance, and funding capacity will drive the setup. Third, the capital structure simplification improves strategic flexibility; extinguishing convertible notes while retaining bitcoin treasury exposure strengthens Fold's ability to scale credit, gift card, and business channels.

For more details, the full announcement is available here.