U.S. eCommerce Projected to Surpass $2 Trillion by 2030 as Mobile and AI Transform Retail Landscape

The U.S. eCommerce market continues to expand at a record pace, driven by the convergence of mobile technology, generative AI, and new retail infrastructure designed for speed and personalization. According to Mordor Intelligence, U.S. eCommerce is projected to grow from $1.25 trillion in 2025 to $2.08 trillion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 10.7 percent. This substantial growth trajectory underscores the ongoing digital transformation of retail and consumer behavior patterns.

Mitch Gould, Founder and CEO of Nutritional Products International, emphasized that current market developments represent more than just numerical growth. What's happening now is a complete redefinition of how consumers discover, evaluate, and buy products. Mobile and AI are merging convenience with intelligence, fundamentally changing the entire distribution playbook for brands operating in the digital space. The integration of these technologies is creating new opportunities and challenges for businesses across all sectors.

Mobile commerce now drives the majority of online checkouts in the United States, while generative AI is improving conversion rates by aligning search intent with product discovery according to Mordor Intelligence research. Simultaneously, eCommerce sales climbed 7.5% year-over-year in 2024, reaching $1.1 trillion, and now represent 16.3% of all U.S. retail sales based on data from Digital Commerce 360 and the U.S. Census Bureau. These statistics highlight the accelerating shift toward digital purchasing channels and the growing importance of mobile optimization in retail strategy.

Generative AI is bridging the gap between consumer awareness and purchasing action by helping consumers find what they actually want while enabling brands to tell their stories in ways that resonate faster and more authentically. This technological advancement represents a significant evolution in how brands connect with potential customers and how consumers navigate the increasingly complex digital marketplace. The implications extend beyond mere convenience to fundamentally altering the consumer decision-making process.

Amazon remains the dominant force in the eCommerce landscape, holding roughly 40% of the U.S. market, nearly triple the combined online sales of its next three competitors. However, Walmart is quickly closing the gap, reporting 23% year-over-year growth in online sales in 2024 and more than $120 billion in digital revenue. The consolidation of retail powerhouses like Amazon, Walmart, and emerging players such as Temu are setting new standards for logistics and personalization while simultaneously creating opportunities for smaller, high-quality brands that can demonstrate readiness across compliance and category alignment before entering the market.

Through its Evolution of Distribution model, Nutritional Products International prepares international and domestic brands to compete across both digital and physical channels. The system combines regulatory and operational readiness, retail positioning, relationship-driven introductions, and post-placement support to sustain long-term success in the evolving retail environment. Success in contemporary eCommerce requires orchestration rather than treating online and physical retail as separate entities. The most successful brands will be those who synchronize data, fulfillment, and storytelling across every platform consumers use, creating seamless experiences that meet modern consumer expectations for convenience and personalization.