S&P 500 Surges to New Highs Amid Mixed Economic Signals

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Fear and Greed Index reading near 61 actually mean for investors right now?

On Episode 813, Horowitz characterizes the CNN Fear and Greed Index reading of 61 as being in the Greed zone but closer to neutral rather than extreme greed. He treats these indicators as contrarian signals, noting that extreme fear tends to be a buying opportunity and extreme greed a warning sign, but the current level does not yet warrant either action.

Why did the July jobs report deliver 'something for everyone'?

The report showed unemployment at 4.1%, one of the lowest readings in a long time, but only 20,000 new payrolls were added and the prior month was revised down by roughly 70,000. Horowitz explains the low unemployment rate was partly driven by a shrinking labor participation rate, meaning bulls and bears can each cite the data to support their view.

How did mega-cap free cash flow shake out this earnings season?

Apple's free cash flow rose about $7.5 billion or 31%, and Nvidia added $22.5 billion. But Microsoft fell $6 billion, Meta dropped 91% on renewed AI spending, Amazon swung $25 billion into negative territory, Alphabet flipped negative, Tesla turned to a $1.09 billion outflow, and Intel worsened by $7.37 billion after a $20 billion secondary offering.

What is the KRI Index that Andrew Horowitz mentions?

KRI stands for Key Reversal Indicator, a proprietary tool Horowitz built that combines multiple ranked, weighted indicators into a single reading. He says historically when the KRI bottoms out it has signaled a time to buy, though tops are less reliable as sell signals because investors react to fear faster than they react to greed.

Why are investors seemingly ignoring the new 10 to 12% tariffs on 60 trading partners?

Horowitz argues investors have grown numb after repeated tariff whiplash and now assume companies can navigate through them. He also notes some firms, like Nike, are receiving refunds that boost reported earnings, and management teams have used tariff pressure as cover to cut costs, similar to how COVID and AI narratives justified layoffs.

What happened at the Fort Lauderdale meetup honoring John C. Dvorak?

Roughly 35 listeners gathered in Fort Lauderdale, some driving from Miami, Tampa, St. Pete, and Port St. Lucie, with one attendee flying in from Maryland. Horowitz hosted JCD trivia, gave away signed copies of the Stock Market ABCs book illustrated by Jay Dvorak, and Adam Curry sent a video from San Francisco ahead of the funeral service.

Why does the upcoming CPI print matter so much this week?

CPI is expected to ease to 3.4% year over year with core at 2.5%, released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., followed by PPI on Thursday. A soft reading could push the 10-year Treasury yield from around 4.6-4.7% back toward 4.4% and boost rate cut hopes, while a hot number could revive rate hike fears under Kevin Warsh.