Oil Spikes, Bond Jitters and a Target Halloween Backlash Rattle September Markets

Frequently Asked Questions

Why do Horowitz and Dvorak keep emphasizing 'trust' as the key market driver in Episode 816?

Dvorak argues that currencies, equities, and even private company valuations ultimately rest on confidence, calling markets 'a series of very large trust factors.' The hosts tie this back to rising bond yields, the renewed bombing of Iran, and administration credibility, warning that a Smoot-Hawley-style tariff escalation would signal America no longer believes it can compete, further eroding global trust in the dollar.

How much did oil move, and why are diesel crack spreads getting singled out?

Crude climbed to about $91.80, up roughly 13% in two weeks, after traders initially dismissed Iran sanctions as non-disruptive. Horowitz flags diesel crack spreads as the most valuable tell because they translate almost immediately into higher transport costs for truckers and end users, feeding through to retail prices, packaging petrochemicals, and agricultural goods that he says are already 'going parabolic.'

What made Dell's earnings guidance so striking?

Dell guided Q3 midpoint EPS to $6.50 versus a prior $4.46, with revenues of $49 billion versus $41 billion. Full-year fiscal 2027 EPS was lifted to $25.50 from $18.99, with revenues around $192 billion versus $174 billion. Horowitz notes Dell owns roughly 40% of the data center market, so any data center growth flows directly to Dell, which jumped about 8% after hours.

What is the Nvidia-Hugging Face angle, and how does Sam Altman fit in?

Dvorak reports Nvidia is pursuing Hugging Face for about $12.9 billion to dominate the open-source, open-weights AI space, which he compares to Microsoft's purchase of GitHub. Street rumor holds that Jensen Huang left a recent dinner with Sam Altman upset over his treatment, prompting an all-in open-source push as a counterweight to OpenAI and Anthropic's closed-model ambitions.

Why is Target back in the hot seat?

Target pulled a children's clown Halloween costume after complaints that the product's design and photo styling resembled 19th-century blackface minstrel imagery. The company apologized and is reviewing its internal approval process. Horowitz notes Target's stock had rallied 79% off the bottom as its 'mojo' returned, making this fresh brand-management stumble particularly costly after earlier politically charged merchandise fights.

What should listeners watch in Friday's jobs data?

August payrolls hit at 8:30 a.m., following July's 23,000 job decline and downward revisions. Horowitz stresses watching the labor participation rate, since a shrinking workforce can artificially flatter the 4.1% unemployment reading. ADP, JOLTS, and ISM manufacturing and services data also land that week, and the numbers will shape expectations for a potential post-midterm Fed rate move.